Gold has traded between $1,276 and $1,292 so far today…as of 9:40 am Pacific, bullion is up $12 an ounce at $1,289…Silver has jumped 58 cents to $18.45…Copper has added 2 pennies to $2.22…Crude Oil has fallen 48 cents to $46.38 while the U.S. Dollar Index has slid more than half a point to 97.82…
The central banks of Japan and Australia both kept interest rates unchanged today…next up is the Fed which meets today and tomorrow – no rate hike tomorrow from Ma Yellen but the markets will be paying close attention to language as it pertains to a possible rate move at December’s meeting…good luck, Ma!…
China’s Gold consumption in the first 9 months of 2016 dropped 12.8 tonnes from the year before to 720.7 tonnes, China Gold Association data showed today…the world’s top Gold consumer bought 478 tonnes of Gold jewelry, down 20% year-on-year…however, investment appetite continued to edge up with 4.1% and 12.9% increases in demand for Gold bars and Gold coins, respectively…the country also cut its production of the precious metal over the period by 2.6% to 347.8 tonnes, the industry body said…
Meanwhile, there was some encouraging economic data out of China overnight that suggests the world’s second-largest economy is on a stronger footing:
- China October factory activity (govt. data) strongest since July 2014 while the private Caixin survey showed its fastest rate of improvement since March 2011
- Service sector growth accelerates to highest since late 2015
- Smaller firms seeing long-awaited improvement
- Readings suggest economy is steadying, more “in balance”
- Construction booming but housing rally may be peaking
The S&P 500 Election “Indicator”
Sam Stovall, respected chief investment strategist at independent equity research firm CFRA, says the market’s decline this fall is a bad omen for the incumbent party and Hillary Clinton who holds a modest but dwindling lead in the latest polls entering election day a week from today…
“Going back to World War II, the S&P 500 performance between July 31 and October 31 has accurately predicted a challenger victory 86% percent of the time when the stock market performance has been negative,” he said…
The S&P 500 is down 2.2% since its close of 2173 on the final trading day of July…
The one time in eight that the incumbent party won with a negative stock market was in 1956 when Adlai Stevenson challenged President Dwight D. Eisenhower…
Gold Seasonality Chart
Historically, October is one of Gold’s worst months of the year with an average negative return of 1.3% going back 2 decades…Gold has dropped two-thirds of the time in October but November is a different story with higher prices 53% of the time and an average return of 1.9% (3rd best month of the year)…
Venture Seasonality Chart
October was the Venture’s worst month since its new bull market began in February with a drop of 27 points or 3.3%…historically during bull market years, October, November and December are each exceptionally strong, but this is also a U.S. election year coupled with a great deal of uncertainty regarding what the Fed may or may not do…
This time around, it’s possible the Venture may save much of its Q4 bull market power for December, particularly after the Fed’s December 13-14 meeting which also coincides with the start of a typical year-end buying spree…then again, if Gold moves dramatically this month based on the outcome of next Tuesday’s elections, the Venture could quickly blast through key resistance around 800…
In Today’s Morning Musings…
1. WPC Resources (WPQ, TSX-V) firms up deal to acquire past producing Lupin mine – what to watch for on the WPQ chart…
2. Callinex Resources (CNX, TSX-V) gets aggressive at Pine Bay VMS Project…
3. TSX Gold Index and HGU push higher as Gold continues to firm…
4. Kootenay Silver (KTN, TSX-V) update and fresh chart as drilling continues at La Negra and La Cigarra…
5. Orca Gold (ORG, TSX-V) drills 150 m @ 2.2 g/t Au at Block 14…
6. Colorado Resources‘ (CXO, TSX-V) update…
Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…
