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March 5, 2016

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead

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March 4, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,250 and $1,281 (a new 13-month high) so far today with the metal experiencing some brief profit-taking immediately following the release of a stronger than expected U.S. jobs report…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $6 an ounce at $1,270…Silver has climbed 46 cents to $15.68…Copper is another 6 cents higher at $2.29…Crude Oil has surged $1.32 a barrel to $35.89 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-third of a point to 97.28…resistance was very strong around 98 as expected…

Gold had a brief “sell on news” moment this morning when the U.S. jobs report came out, but bullion quickly gained its footing as investors bought the dip and drove the price back up after new support at $1,250 was tested…a confirmed breakout has been confirmed above a pennant formation that lasted for nearly 3 weeks…we’ll examine some fresh upside targets over the weekend…

The U.S. economy added 242,000 jobs in February while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%…economists were expecting 190,000 new positions and no change in the jobless figure….revisions to previous months added 30,000 with December going from 262,000 to 271,000 while January was pushed up to 172,000 from 151,000

Despite today’s strong headline number, the closely watched average hourly wages actually declined for the month, falling 3 cents and equating to a 2.2% annualized jump, down from 2.5% in January…Fed policy makers are looking at wages for evidence of inflation…the average hourly work week also declined 0.2 hours to 34.4

The most job gains in February were in health care and social assistance, retail trade, food services/drinking places, and private educational services…mining employment fell by 19,000…since peaking in September 2014, the mining sector in the U.S. has shed 171,000 jobs with more than three-quarters of that loss attributed to support activities for mining…

Canada Reduces Gold Holdings To 77 Ounces

Canada is among the largest Gold producers in the world, but as of last month the government valued its official holdings of the precious metal at zero…the country sold off 21,851 ounces of Gold coins in February, the Finance Department confirmed yesterday, in a disclosure of its official international reserves…a footnote in the report said the government still has 77 ounces of the precious metal…by comparison, in February, the U.S. held about 8,133 tonnes of Gold, which made up 72% of its reserves, according to the World Gold Council…the WGC also said Germany had 3,381 tonnes for 66% of its reserves last month, while Italy and France each held more than 2,400 tonnes – over 60% cent of their respective reserves…Canada, for some reason, has to be different…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Next target area for the Venture

2.  Takeover activity in the Gold sector should intensify – Endeavour Mining (EDV, TSX) announces this morning that it’s acquiring True Gold Mining (TGM, TSX-V) in a friendly all-stock transaction…

3.  A high-grade Silver discovery that should garner increasing interest this month…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold’s Power Move

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March 3, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,238 and $1,247 so far today…as of 5:30 am Pacific, bullion is up $1 an ounce at $1,241 (important updated chart in today’s Morning Musings)…Silver is unchanged at $14.92…Copper has added another penny to $2.18…Crude Oil is off slightly at $34.50 while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated one-tenth of a point to 98.05

Inflows continue into Gold-backed exchange-traded funds…holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust hit 788.6 tonnes yesteday, the most since September 2014

Traders are eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report for February for important jobs and wage data, numbers that are likely to impact both the greenback and Gold…payrolls are estimated to have risen by 190,000 last month, according to a Reuters poll of economists…a strong reading may revive expectations that the Federal Reserve will press ahead with more rate hikes this year…keep in mind, however, that Gold held near its session highs on Wednesday despite the fact that private payrolls processor ADP said that 214,000 jobs were created in February, well above the expected forecast of 185,000 jobs…

Gold has been in a pennant formation for the last 13 trading sessions and could decide by no later than tomorrow to bust out to the upside…

Oil Update

A drop in U.S. production to levels not seen since late 2014 gave Crude prices a lift yesterday with the highest close since January 5 despite a much more than expected rise in inventories…the EIA reported U.S. Oil production fell last week by about 25,000 barrels per day (bpd) to just over 9 million bpd, down from a peak of 9.6 million bpd in April…more reliable monthly figures from EIA put U.S. Crude production at 9.2 million bpd in December…

The resiliency of North American exploration and production companies has been remarkable, but 2016 will be a year of reckoning for the industry…research from AlixPartners on 130 publicly traded U.S. and Canadian E&P companies suggests that, at current Oil prices, they will have a combined $102 billion operating cash-flow shortage to cover interest expenses and capital budgets…

Oil Drilling

Aubrey McClendon, the billionaire oilman and the former head of Chesapeake Energy (CHK, NYSE) who was instrumental in launching the U.S. shale energy revolution, died in a car crash in Oklahoma City yesterday morning…it was an apparent suicide as McClendon, who was also the owner of Oklahoma’s NBA franchise, drove his 2013 Chevrolet Tahoe at a high rate of speed, according to police, and slammed into a bridge embankment in northeast Oklahoma City…his death came less than a day after the 56-year old was charged with rigging bids for Oil and Natural Gas leases…

Natural Gas futures dropped to their lowest level in 17 years yesterday with warmer-than-normal weather expected to contribute to a below-average fall in weekly U.S. supplies of the heating fuel…year to date, futures prices have lost more than 28%…what’s shaping up is likely a tremendous buying opportunity at some point during perhaps this 1st half of the year, a situation we’ll be watching closely…analysts at Morgan Stanley expect a strong finish to 2016 for Natural Gas when the market is expected to return to balance…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Is Donald Trump good for Gold?…

2.  Canadian dollar update…

3.  New Carolin Gold (LAD, TSX-V) on verge of breakout…

4.  Good sign for the Venture – two “bellwether” juniors are gaining momentum after breaking out above long-term downtrends…

5.  Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI, TSX) surges 66% in 3 months…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

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March 2, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,224 and $1,243 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $8 an ounce at $1,240…Silver has climbed 16 cents to $14.97…Copper is up 3 cents $2.15…Crude Oil has added 29 cents to $34.69 while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 98.32

Agnico Eagle (AEM, TSX) CEO Sean Boyd told Kitco News in an interview yesterday that he sees significant changes in the Gold market taking place. “We were in a market where paper market was dominant. No one was focused on what was happening in the physical markets,” he said.  “But a lot of smart money is turning into Gold.”

Jewelers in India’s commercial capital began an indefinite strike yesterday to try to reverse a plan by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to introduce an excise tax, a 1% levy announced in Monday’s budget…India, of course, is the largest Gold market after China and the stoppage in Mumbai may spread…a 3-week nationwide strike in 2012 was successful in getting Modi’s predecessor, Manmohan Singh, to drop plans for an excise tax on Gold jewelry, although the government prevailed in imposing an import duty…

Fraser Institute Rankings

Australia is now the best investment jurisdiction in the global mining sector, according to the Fraser Institute in its latest popular annual survey…it rated 109 regions in total, and 3 Australian regions made it into the top 10 global ranking with Western Australia coming in 1st place…in Canada, Saskatchewan was once again ranked as the top mining region and came in 2nd place in the global survey…however, only 1 other Canadian jurisdiction cracked the top 10 – Quebec, which we find rather surprising given that province’s continuing regulatory delays and environmental politics…

The institute ranked the U.S. as the 3rd most attractive investment country in the world with 3 regions making into the top 10 list, only slightly behind Canada and Australia…Nevada came in 3rd in the global marketplace…however, it is probably Ireland that saw the biggest jump as it now lays claim to the 4th position, up 10 spots from 2014…rounding out the top 10 are Alaska in 6th place, Northern Territory (in Australia) in 7th, Quebec in 8th, Utah in 9th and South Australia in 10th…the companies that participated in the survey reported exploration spending of $2.2 billion U.S. in 2015 and $2.5 billion U.S. in 2014…click here to view the full Fraser Institute report…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Very interesting updated charts for both the Dow and the TSX…

2.  Moody’s takes a dimmer view of China’s credit rating…

3.  Fresh chart explains the new energy behind Pure Energy Minerals (PE, TSX-V)…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

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March 1, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,226 and $1,249 on this Super Tuesday in U.S. politics…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $8 an ounce at $1,230…Silver has fallen 16 cents to $14.73…Copper is up a penny at $2.15…Crude Oil has gained 72 cents to $34.47 while the U.S. Dollar Index has added one-quarter of a point to 98.42

Lucky plumbers – the owner and operator of a home improvement company in Calgary, and an employee, have found a Gold brick, worth an estimated $50,000 or more, under a tub while ripping apart a bathroom…the cellphone-sized Gold bar is imprinted with a serial number and the stamp of a well-known jeweler…

Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg commented today that he believes commodity markets have hit the bottom and that cuts in spending by the world’s biggest mining companies will have a positive impact on prices going forward…

Bullion completed its best month in 4 years yesterday amid further inflows into Gold-backed exchange-traded funds…New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares saw inflows of nearly 15 tonnes yesterday, taking holdings to their highest since 2014

Data this morning showed that the Chinese manufacturing shrank more sharply than expected in February, suggesting Beijing will have to ramp up stimulus to avoid a deeper economic slowdown…yesterday’s first batch of a series of economic reports out of the U.S. this week revived concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy, though this morning’s ISM manufacturing report exceeded expectations…

Meanwhile, an influential Federal Reserve official said today that he sees downside risks to his U.S. economic outlook, an assessment that could flag a longer pause than he and his colleagues had earlier signaled in terms of the Fed’s next interest rate hike.  “At this moment, I judge that the balance of risks to my growth and inflation outlooks may be starting to tilt slightly to the downside,” New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said in remarks prepared for delivery at a conference in China, sponsored jointly by the People’s Bank of China and the New York Fed…of particular concern, he said, are falling inflation expectations, as tracked both by market pricing and more importantly in his view by surveys of households…while so far the declines are not dangerously large, if they fall further they could make it more difficult for the Fed to bring inflation back up to its goal…

How about this – despite all the monetary “stimulus” in the euro zone, annual inflation there is expected to be negative 0.2% in February, down from 0.3% in January, according to a flash estimate yesterday from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office…no matter how hard they try, central banks around the globe are failing in their efforts to kick-start inflation…

Canada’s Big Mess – Anti-Oil, Climate Change Fanatics At It Again

Another day, more insanity in Carbon Free Canada…the Quebec government, which has been the lucky recipient of billions and billions of dollars in transfer payments from the West over the years (time to put a halt to the “equalization” pipeline), announced this morning that it’s seeking an injunction against the Energy East Pipeline Project…it seems that crazy eastern Canadian environmentalists (there are some out west as well) would rather import increasing amounts of Oil from Saudi Arabia than take Crude from western Canada…go figure…Energy East is a $16 billion project that would carry about 1.1 million barrels of Crude Oil per day from Alberta and Saskatchewan through a 4,600 km-long pipeline to petroleum refineries in the east…if climate change fanatics have their way, this project will never break ground, and Canada will continue to import more Oil from the Middle East in a foolish mission to help “save the planet”…absolute lunacy…time for a common sense revolution in this country…

Gold Seasonality Chart

Over the last 20 years, March has been one of the worst months of the year for Gold…all the more reason to be cognizant of a potential retracement this month of some of the gains that have been racked up since the beginning of the year…conceivably, that could come after a further push to the upside – we’ll see…

Gold has finished positive in March only one-third of the time going back to 1997 as you can see in this seasonality chart…the average decline has been 0.8%, the 3rd-worst performing month behind October (-1.2%) and June (-0.9%)…

Gold Seasonality March 1

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  We’re not seeing it today but the Venture, importantly, has outperformed the broader markets over the last 3 months…

2.  Crude Oil gains fresh momentum – where to from here?…

3.  Lithium – Pure Energy (PE, TSX-V) edges closer to a breakout along with Nevada Energy Metals (BFF, TSX-V)…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

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