March 5, 2016
March 4, 2016
BMR Morning Market Musings…
Gold has traded between $1,250 and $1,281 (a new 13-month high) so far today with the metal experiencing some brief profit-taking immediately following the release of a stronger than expected U.S. jobs report…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $6 an ounce at $1,270…Silver has climbed 46 cents to $15.68…Copper is another 6 cents higher at $2.29…Crude Oil has surged $1.32 a barrel to $35.89 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-third of a point to 97.28…resistance was very strong around 98 as expected…
Gold had a brief “sell on news” moment this morning when the U.S. jobs report came out, but bullion quickly gained its footing as investors bought the dip and drove the price back up after new support at $1,250 was tested…a confirmed breakout has been confirmed above a pennant formation that lasted for nearly 3 weeks…we’ll examine some fresh upside targets over the weekend…
The U.S. economy added 242,000 jobs in February while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%…economists were expecting 190,000 new positions and no change in the jobless figure….revisions to previous months added 30,000 with December going from 262,000 to 271,000 while January was pushed up to 172,000 from 151,000…
Despite today’s strong headline number, the closely watched average hourly wages actually declined for the month, falling 3 cents and equating to a 2.2% annualized jump, down from 2.5% in January…Fed policy makers are looking at wages for evidence of inflation…the average hourly work week also declined 0.2 hours to 34.4…
The most job gains in February were in health care and social assistance, retail trade, food services/drinking places, and private educational services…mining employment fell by 19,000…since peaking in September 2014, the mining sector in the U.S. has shed 171,000 jobs with more than three-quarters of that loss attributed to support activities for mining…
Canada Reduces Gold Holdings To 77 Ounces
Canada is among the largest Gold producers in the world, but as of last month the government valued its official holdings of the precious metal at zero…the country sold off 21,851 ounces of Gold coins in February, the Finance Department confirmed yesterday, in a disclosure of its official international reserves…a footnote in the report said the government still has 77 ounces of the precious metal…by comparison, in February, the U.S. held about 8,133 tonnes of Gold, which made up 72% of its reserves, according to the World Gold Council…the WGC also said Germany had 3,381 tonnes for 66% of its reserves last month, while Italy and France each held more than 2,400 tonnes – over 60% cent of their respective reserves…Canada, for some reason, has to be different…
In today’s Morning Musings…
1. Next target area for the Venture…
2. Takeover activity in the Gold sector should intensify – Endeavour Mining (EDV, TSX) announces this morning that it’s acquiring True Gold Mining (TGM, TSX-V) in a friendly all-stock transaction…
3. A high-grade Silver discovery that should garner increasing interest this month…
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March 3, 2016
BMR Morning Market Musings…
Gold has traded between $1,238 and $1,247 so far today…as of 5:30 am Pacific, bullion is up $1 an ounce at $1,241 (important updated chart in today’s Morning Musings)…Silver is unchanged at $14.92…Copper has added another penny to $2.18…Crude Oil is off slightly at $34.50 while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated one-tenth of a point to 98.05…
Inflows continue into Gold-backed exchange-traded funds…holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust hit 788.6 tonnes yesteday, the most since September 2014…
Traders are eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report for February for important jobs and wage data, numbers that are likely to impact both the greenback and Gold…payrolls are estimated to have risen by 190,000 last month, according to a Reuters poll of economists…a strong reading may revive expectations that the Federal Reserve will press ahead with more rate hikes this year…keep in mind, however, that Gold held near its session highs on Wednesday despite the fact that private payrolls processor ADP said that 214,000 jobs were created in February, well above the expected forecast of 185,000 jobs…
Gold has been in a pennant formation for the last 13 trading sessions and could decide by no later than tomorrow to bust out to the upside…
Oil Update
A drop in U.S. production to levels not seen since late 2014 gave Crude prices a lift yesterday with the highest close since January 5 despite a much more than expected rise in inventories…the EIA reported U.S. Oil production fell last week by about 25,000 barrels per day (bpd) to just over 9 million bpd, down from a peak of 9.6 million bpd in April…more reliable monthly figures from EIA put U.S. Crude production at 9.2 million bpd in December…
The resiliency of North American exploration and production companies has been remarkable, but 2016 will be a year of reckoning for the industry…research from AlixPartners on 130 publicly traded U.S. and Canadian E&P companies suggests that, at current Oil prices, they will have a combined $102 billion operating cash-flow shortage to cover interest expenses and capital budgets…
Aubrey McClendon, the billionaire oilman and the former head of Chesapeake Energy (CHK, NYSE) who was instrumental in launching the U.S. shale energy revolution, died in a car crash in Oklahoma City yesterday morning…it was an apparent suicide as McClendon, who was also the owner of Oklahoma’s NBA franchise, drove his 2013 Chevrolet Tahoe at a high rate of speed, according to police, and slammed into a bridge embankment in northeast Oklahoma City…his death came less than a day after the 56-year old was charged with rigging bids for Oil and Natural Gas leases…
Natural Gas futures dropped to their lowest level in 17 years yesterday with warmer-than-normal weather expected to contribute to a below-average fall in weekly U.S. supplies of the heating fuel…year to date, futures prices have lost more than 28%…what’s shaping up is likely a tremendous buying opportunity at some point during perhaps this 1st half of the year, a situation we’ll be watching closely…analysts at Morgan Stanley expect a strong finish to 2016 for Natural Gas when the market is expected to return to balance…
In today’s Morning Musings…
1. Is Donald Trump good for Gold?…
2. Canadian dollar update…
3. New Carolin Gold (LAD, TSX-V) on verge of breakout…
4. Good sign for the Venture – two “bellwether” juniors are gaining momentum after breaking out above long-term downtrends…
5. Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI, TSX) surges 66% in 3 months…
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