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October 23, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is getting knocked around again today on a “risk-off” today in the markets…as of 8:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $20 an ounce at $1,710…Silver is 58 cents lower at $31.87…Copper is off a nickel at $3.57…Crude Oil has retreated $2.41 a barrel to $86.24 while the U.S. Dollar Index has climbed nearly half a point to 79.98…

Gold’s drop is nothing to fear – it’s in a normal retracement mode and, based on John’s typically very accurate readings, the bottom is somewhere between the low $1,640’s (worst case scenario) and $1,700 – around current levels – as he shows in the chart below…

Today’s Markets

China’s Shanghai Composite fell 18 points or just under 1% overnight as traders were cautious ahead of tomorrow’s “flash” survey of the manufacturing sector – the next important clue in revealing whether the world’s second-biggest economy can avoid the hard landing that some analysts fear…European stocks were pressured overnight on fresh worries about Spain’s economic health…Spanish bond yields rose today on reports Spain’s central bank said the Spanish economy contracted by 1.7% in the third quarter, on an annual basis, versus the 1.3% contraction in the second quarter…the central bank also said Spain may not be able to meet its deficit targets…in addition, Moody’s has further downgraded sectors of the Spanish economy…the euro weakened on the Spain news…

North American markets are in the red today, thanks in part to some disappointing earnings…the Dow is in danger of posting its fourth triple digit loss in the last 11 sessions…as of 8:00 am Pacific, it’s off 236 points at 13110…the TSX has declined by over 200 points while the Venture Exchange has fallen 22 points to 1286, just slightly below its rising 50-day moving average (SMA)…

So consider this is a GREAT day because it’s bargain-hunting time…

Huldra Silver (HDA, TSX-V)

We’ve written often about Huldra Silver (HDA, TSX-V) over the last number of months as this is a tremendously well-run company that has fast-tracked production at its high-grade Treasure Mountain Silver Property near Hope, British Columbia…a picture tells a thousand words, and we encourage our readers – as part of their due diligence – to check out the gallery section on HDA’s web site as it contains nearly 100 pictures…Treasure Mountain is the nearest mine to Vancouver (a 3-hour drive), which certainly gives Huldra some advantages in attracting skilled labor, and currently contains NI-43-101 indicated and inferred underground resources of over 4 million ounces of Silver…high-grade forgives all sins, and Treasure Mountain’s grades are close to 30 oz/t Ag and 7-8% combined lead and zinc…the property still has very strong exploration potential with many untested targets, and mine workings open on strike and at depth for resource expansion…mine development has been completed and mining operations are underway (the company trucks material to its mill in Merritt, only an hour away)…the stock has heavy institutional ownership and appears ready to roll out its story to the retail sector…with only about 45 million shares outstanding, including the latest financing ($1.35) which is in its final stages, Huldra’s market cap is approximately just $60 million based on yesterday’s $1.40 closing price…

Now that it’s just entering production, one can only imagine what Huldra could do if Silver prices were to really take off as we suspect they will in the coming months…

Below is an updated Huldra chart from John…note the big volume increase in the stock the last couple of trading sessions…it’s holding up well in early trading today, currently unchanged…


CMC Metals (CMB, TSX-V)

A low-priced, potential near-term small-scale Gold producer we continue to follow is CMC Metals (CMB, TSX-V) which is looking good on the charts even though it’s hovering near its all-time lows…the permitting process for CMC’s Bishop Mine in California has taken longer than expected but appears to be on track for completion before the end of the year…CMC closed yesterday at 13 cents after hitting an intra-day 52-week low of 9 cents…this one could be a “sleeper” for 2013…below is a 2.5-year weekly chart from John…

Orko Silver (OK, TSX-V) Chart Update


CB Gold Inc. (CBJ, TSX-V)

Another Colombian play that is looking strong, and worth keeping an eye on, is CB Gold Inc. (CBJ, TSX-V) which has climbed 14 cents the last three trading sessions…as of 8:00 am Pacific, CBJ is unchanged at 94 cents…

Note: Jon holds a share position in HDA.

October 22, 2012

Johnston Aims High With RBW, His Next Kilimanjaro

12:00 pm (Pacific) Monday, Oct. 22

A little known fact about Rainbow Resources’ (RBW, TSX-V) President David W. Johnston is that just five years ago, at the age of 62, he climbed his way to the 19,300-foot-high summit of Mount Kilimanjaro.  It was one of the defining moments of his life, and a sign of the grit and determination of this Calgarian whose business card includes the statement, “There is Always a Way”.  He recalls, “My hands felt like a block of wood at times” when speaking about the grueling 7-day Kilimanjaro trek for charity.   Johnston was accompanied by his wife Julie and a group of 20 others who together raised over $220,000 for the Canadian Arthritis Society.

Johnston has never been one to back down from a challenge.  That’s why he was also able to successfully build privately-held Braveheart Resources Canada Inc., steer it through the financial crisis of 2008 and ultimately lead it into a takeover by Rainbow in late 2011 at a time when markets were also under severe stress.

Johnston at the International Silver Property.

Almost immediately following the RainbowBraveheart “marriage”, Johnston went to work at lightning speed to build the Venture-listed company with help from others who have been very successful in business, exploration and mining.   This list includes engineer Jim Decker, Rainbow’s VP-Operations, whose advice is sought from and valued by some of the largest Gold and resource producers in the world.  Decker was one of the original founders of Grande Cache Coal and was instrumental in helping it become an incredible success story in Western Canada.

By the end of the first quarter of this year, Rainbow had made major strides in the development of its 13,000-hectare Big Strike land package in the West Kootenays, and also scooped up one of the best available pieces of exploration real estate in Nevada – the Jewel Ridge Property in the heart of a multimillion ounce Gold system where Rainbow is now ready to drill.  Priority #1 will be to duplicate a stellar hole from previous work that returned 2.1 g/t Au over 40 metres, and find others just like it around the past producing Hamburg Pit.

Rumor has it, Timberline Resources (TLR: AMEX and TBR: TSX-V), a stock that has climbed nearly 50% in a month based on results from Lookout Mountain immediately to the south of Jewel Ridge, was aiming to expand north and grab the Jewel Ridge Property itself but got out-maneuvered by Rainbow’s Calgary connection.

Johnston created wealth for Braveheart shareholders and is completely focused on doing the same for all RBW investors, just one of many reasons he’s got the strong backing and support of some of Calgary’s most prominent and successful businessmen including close friend Bob Libin – part-owner of the NHL’s Flames.

“David first and foremost is someone I have enormous trust in and respect for,” Libin told us the other day.  “Exploration is always a risky business and there are never any guarantees.  But David has set things up with Rainbow to give investors the best shot possible at a discovery very soon that would transform any junior almost overnight.  Using a hockey analogy, we’re very early in the game.  David’s behind the bench making the calls.  He has an aggressive plan of attack that is about to result in three straight breakaways with a chance to score and put Rainbow in the lead with great momentum.  I like our team’s odds.  We have a great leader and a lot of talent.  We’re all extremely competitive.  Winning is the only option.”

Using Libin’s interesting analogy, International, Gold Viking and Jewel Ridge are Rainbow’s seasoned snipers.  And they are now on the attack.  It’s an exploration power play.

Friday’s news (Oct. 19) of some stunning sampling grades from the Referendum and Whitewater properties (2.51 oz/t, 2.06 oz/t, and 0.86 oz/t) merely constituted the Discovery Cup pre-game show in our view.  Now is when things could really begin to heat up with drill results pending from the International, drilling starting at Gold Viking, and drilling about to begin in Nevada.  This is a powerful 1-2-3 punch.  Just one stellar hole from any of these properties, and Rainbow is off to the races given its current modest market cap of only $8.5 million.

“One of the great things about this industry is the leverage it provides,” Johnston told us in an interview last week.  “GoldQuest was a recent excellent example of that, going from a nickel to $2 a share.  There are a lot of other very good exploration successes happening right now as well.  Our focus this year has been on the International, Gold Viking and Jewel Ridge properties, as we clearly stated it would be.  That gives our investors huge leverage to three major discovery opportunities.  We also have boots on the ground to investigate other potential new discoveries throughout the Big Strike package in the West Kootenays and the flake graphite region as well.  I love our team as they are riding the Rainbow brand as hard as ever at the moment.  We’re doing what we said we would do, that’s the cowboy code, and there’s a lot more news to come.  The downhole tools will drive this story forward through the rest of the year, and I’m very comfortable with that given the quality of our properties.  I can’t wait until we see start seeing results and get them all out.”

1. International Silver Property

Johnston expects assay results by the end of October/early November from the recently completed 15-hole shallow drill program at the International, one of the most prospective Silver properties in British Columbia.  “Originally, the plan wasn’t to drill quite so many holes in this first phase,” Johnston said.  “As we cautiously reported, we got some very encouraging signs.  We consistently intersected the vein system and we’re very eager to see the numbers.  The assaying is complicated because it involves testing for not only Silver mineralization but some base metals and Gold.  We would re-check any high grades (Silver and lead) which this property is known for historically because of the massive galena.  Up until our recent drilling, the International had never been previously drilled due to access issues which are no longer a problem.  We’ve tested only a tiny portion of the northwest trending structure that we believe carries on for several kilometres.  This is an outstanding 4,000-hectare property with high potential for the discovery of a deposit based on four geological reports over the past few years and the work that we have completed.”

2. Gold Viking

As drilling begins at the Gold Viking Property, about 70 kilometres to the south of the International adjacent to the Village of Slocan, the prospects of a discovery at this location are very real even though Gold Viking has been flying “under the radar” of most investors.

a) Gold Viking is contiguous to the past producing Ottawa Mines, the #1 Silver producer in the Slocan Valley in the 1900’s (nearly 2 million ounces at an average mined grade of an incredible 61.6 oz/ton).  Both properties share similar geological features.  As we’ve often said, the best place to find a new mine is near an old mine;

b) Johnston told us Moose Mountain Technical Services, Rainbow’s resource consultants, were “startled” by a geophysical anomaly 1,400 metres long and over 300 metres wide (Fugro heli-borne electromagnetic survey) that importantly is coincident with a strong geochemical anomaly (soil sampling).  This is a prominent linear feature that Rainbow has made available for investors to view on its web site.  Phase 1 drilling is going to depths of 200 metres into the heart of this anomaly in the central portion of the property which includes an abundance of historical adits;

c) Historical workings:  This writer has personally seen numerous adits at Gold Viking, and went to the very back of one of them for at least 400 feet.  A strong smell of sulphur was very evident along with pyrite, chalcopyrite, sphalerite and galena mineralization in veins along the walls as confirmed by a geologist who was with us.  Typically, in properties such as this, the “old timers” followed a high-grade vein but missed other vein systems and weren’t interested in 5 or 10 gram material that would be very economical at today’s Gold prices.

3. Jewel Ridge

Numerous juniors have done remarkably well in Nevada this year which is one of the world’s hottest mining and exploration addresses at the moment.  Last Monday’s news from Rainbow shed new light on the possibilities of this property which is situated right in between 4.1 million ounces of NI-43-101 reserves and resources as outlined by both Barrick Gold (Ruby Hill Mine) and Timberline Resources (Lookout Mountain Project).

“I was at Jewel Ridge with our senior geologist, Bob Morris, in April, immediately after we optioned the property,” explained Johnston.  “Both Bob and I were absolutely amazed at what we saw and the chip sampling grades that came back confirmed our thinking.  Since then, Bob has collected an enormous amount of historical data that is forcing a major reinterpretation of this property, just like what happened with Timberline on the Lookout Mountain Project.  This is serious prime exploration real estate with clear potential for a large tonnage system.  Give the historical information we have, our odds for success in the upcoming Phase 1 drill program have increased dramatically.”

Below are some key points regarding Jewel Ridge based on Rainbow’s recent disclosure:

1. Historical drill data, previous mining activities, structural setting and style of mineralization at Jewel Ridge all point to the potential of the property hosting a “large mineralized system” in the words of Moose Mountain;

2. Geochemical signatures at Jewel Ridge are similar to those reported at Ruby Hill and Lookout Mountain;

3. Numerous past producing historical pits are lined up on a north-south trend from Lookout Mountain right through Jewel Ridge and further north past the 3.5 million ounce Ruby Hill Mine that produced 130,000 ounces of Gold last year.  This is all the same geological structure;

4. Moose Mountain is in possession of “hundreds” of historical drill holes from Jewel Ridge.  For the first time ever, all historical information on this property from various sources is being compiled in one data base by Moose Mountain.  Combined with Rainbow’s upcoming drill program, RBW’s “geological and engineering teams will be aided immensely in their efforts to outline a potential deposit.”

5. Rainbow’s Phase 1 drilling will focus entirely on the past producing Hamburg Pit where Gold values are present “throughout the Hamburg Dolomite which appears to be at least 200 metres thick.  Northeast trending faults host higher-grade Gold mineralization.”

6. Rainbow’s first hole will be drilled in the immediately vicinity of a 2004 hole that intersected a stellar 2.1 g/t Au over 39.6 metres near-surface.

7. Rainbow will be drilling underneath the Hamburg Pit, the same strategy Timberline has been employing with great success at Lookout Mountain.

The bottom line is that all the previous work at Jewel Ridge was completed in a much different Gold price environment when companies were looking for high-grade material to easily extract at very shallow depths (in many cases less than 100 feet).  With Gold now above $1,700 an ounce, the dynamics at Jewel Ridge are now a lot different as they are at Lookout Mountain where Timberline is looking at near-term production with initial metallurgical recoveries of Gold indicating excellent potential for a low-capital, low-operating-cost, heap-leach operation.

The depth of the Rainbow story, the potential on the ground coupled with the people involved, is why we’ve been so excited by this opportunity in 2012.

Many investors would argue that moving a junior exploration company forward in 2012 has been as challenging as climbing a major mountain peak.  Been there, done that for Johnston, so it should be no surprise that RBW has significantly outperformed the TSX Venture Exchange this year.  Rainbow’s best, in our view, is yet to come, as Johnston aims for the summit of success with the International, Gold Viking and Jewel Ridge properties in the days and weeks to come.

Disclaimer:

Our stock coverage is for informational and entertainment purposes only and must NOT be viewed or interpreted as “buy”, “sell” or “hold” recommendations. Please read our full disclaimer below.  Note:  The writer holds a share position in RBW, and increased that position last week.

BullMarketRun.com (BMR) is completely independent from any companies it covers.  BMR accepts no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations for coverage of any company mentioned on this site.  We accept no advertising either.  Our stock coverage is for informational and entertainment purposes only and must not be viewed or interpreted as “buy”, “sell” or “hold” recommendations. No investment opinion or other advice is being rendered on any stock or company. We strongly recommend that you consult with a qualified investment adviser, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research before making any investment decisions. The stocks we cover, by definition, are highly speculative and potentially very volatile. Investors are cautioned that they may lose all or a portion of their investment if they make a purchase or short sale in these speculative stocks.  We are not Registered Securities Advisers. Our opinions can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Adviser operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction. It should be assumed that BMR personnel, writers and their associates may hold or dispose of or trade in positions in any securities mentioned herein at any time.  Owner/Publisher of BullMarketRun.com is Terry Dyer of Langley, British Columbia.

Forward Looking Statements:

All statements in BMR’s reports, other than statements of historical fact, may be forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events or future performance. Forward-looking statements are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “seek”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “predict”, “potential”, “targeting”, “intend”, “could”, “might”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements.

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is trying to bounce back after Friday’s setback that took it below the $1,730…it fell to a 6-week low of $1,721 overnight before some short covering and bargain hunting took hold…as of 8:25 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $4 an ounce at $1,724…Silver is 19 cents higher at $32.26…Copper is up a penny at $3.63…Crude Oil is off 50 cents at $89.55 while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated nearly one-tenth of a point to 79.57…

(Please note that we’ve changed the regular Morning Musings posting time to between 8:00 am and 8:30 am Monday thru Friday.)

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were up overnight with Japan’s Nikkei average posting its sixth straight day of gains, as a softer yen and expectations of easing from the Bank of Japan outweighed some disappointing U.S. earnings…European shares are slightly lower while U.S. markets have turned mildly negative after being up slightly in early trading, showing continued weakness following Friday’s 200+ point drop…the Venture Exchange, which is looking for its fifth consecutive daily advance, is currently off 8 points at 1308…

It’s an important week with a number of events that could influence the direction of the markets…President Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney square off in their final debate tonight with the latest polls showing a very tight race for the White House with elections just over two weeks away…Chinese PMI is due out tomorrow…ECB President Mario Draghai addresses the German Parliament Wednesday…and U.S. advance third quarter GDP numbers will be released Friday…

Updated Silver Charts

Despite recent weakness, Silver is up 18% since the end of July, so the pullback we’re seeing is cleansing the overbought condition that emerged last month…there are a couple of support levels to watch for…$32 plus a zone between $30.50 and $31 which is very strong…

Silver – Long-Term Chart

We have found the RSI(2) on Silver’s long-term chart (15-year monthly) to be a very accurate guide in recent months, and below you can see that it has declined from overbought levels to 49%, though it could still drop a little more…a powerful “Wave 5” move remains firmly intact, however, with a Fibonacci target (no timeline) of $78 an ounce…

Bitterroot Resources Ltd. (BTT, TSX-V)

One of the high fliers on the Venture recently has been Bitterroot Resources (BTT, TSX-V) which gained another 3 pennies Friday to close at 18 cents on big volume (6.2 million shares, all exchanges)…as of 8:25 am Pacific, BTT is off half a penny on much lighter volume…Bitterroot controls a growing portfolio of nickel/copper/PGM exploration targets within its 360 square miles of wholly owned mineral rights in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan…as always, perform your own due diligence on any possible opportunity…long-term moving averages are in bullish alignment, which is positive, but BTT’s next major hurdle is to overcome resistance at 18 cents…

Solvista Gold Corp. (SVV, TSX-V) Chart Update

Solvista Gold Corp. (SVV, TSX-V), working on an interesting project in Colombia, found support as expected recently in the 70’s and is up another 2 pennies to 83 cents as of 8:25 am Pacific after jumping a nickel Friday…this is a nice-looking chart with the recent overbought condition having completely unwound…

Wildcat Silver (WS, TSX) Chart Update

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in BTT, SVV or WS.

October 20, 2012

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead

TSX Venture Exchange and Gold & Silver

Just a few months ago, on a day when the Dow would plunge 200 points and Gold would fall $20 an ounce, the TSX Venture Exchange would bleed even more and shed at least 20 or 30 points.

Friday, something very telling occurred:  Major North American markets came under significant pressure with the Dow down 205 points (1.5%), the S&P 500 off 24 points (1.7%) and the Nasdaq losing 67 points (2.2%) while Gold fell through a strong support area and closed down $20 an ounce.  Yet, the Venture Exchange actually gained 3 points – its fourth consecutive daily advance.

What that demonstrates is how much the speculative junior resource market has changed in recent months.  There is now some inherent strength in this market that just didn’t exist not so long ago.  The Venture is still not without its challenges, but our contention is that this will be the best performing market in North America over the next six months at least.  Since the beginning of August, the Venture has gained 11% vs. advances of only 6.4%, 2.5% and 2.2% for the TSX, the Dow and Nasdaq, respectively.  Gold, meanwhile, has added $105 an ounce or 6.5% since that time to $1,720.  Silver has been a great performer, climbing 18% since the end of July.

Levels of extreme pessimism prevailed over the Venture in the April through June period in particular.  That’s always the time to be a buyer, not a seller, and that’s the message we were trying to get across to our readers at the time. A recent reversal to the upside in the 1,000-day moving average (SMA), after a four-year decline, is strong evidence that there has been a very important trend change with the Venture.

Most investors are slow to recognize major trend shifts.  A good example was in March, 2011, when the 2+ year bull run turned into a bear market.  It was quite a while after that before most investors caught on to the fact that the Venture was in trouble.  Similarly, it can be argued that this Venture bear market finally exhausted itself after nearly 16 months at the end of June at 1154 and that we’re in the very early stages of a new bull phase.

For the week, the Venture gained 23 points to close at 1316.  A couple of friendly takeovers gave investors encouragement as Prodigy Gold (PDG, TSX-V), a play we’ve consistently mentioned, gained 31 cents or 45% for the week after an all-stock takeover deal with Argonaut Gold (AR, TSX) valued at $341 million.  On Friday, Galway Resources (GWY, TSX-V) announced it had agreed to a $2.05 cash takeover plus a spin-out of two projects.  GWY was up 93 cents or 76% for the week, closing at $2.15.

There are sure to be more deals like the above announced in coming weeks or months as many juniors are simply undervalued, and larger companies are looking to add ounces to their production profiles.  So for those investors who believe that somehow the Venture is about to collapse to 700, sorry – that’s very wishful thinking.  It ain’t about to happen.

For now the Venture appears to be in a trading range between very strong support around 1250 (the 100-day SMA) and resistance at 1350 (just below the 200-day SMA).  Our belief is that the breakout will be to the upside at some point during this quarter.

Below is an updated 6-month Venture chart from John.  RSI(14) bounced up last week but is now at a trendline that it needs to bust through in order for the Index to gain fresh upside momentum.

Gold

It was another rough week for Gold with bullion declining $34 an ounce to $1,720 after a $27 decline the previous week.  Some traders have grown disenchanted with Gold’s inability to get through the $1,800 resistance level, but the fact of the matter is that Gold has enjoyed a big advance over the last couple of months and a moderate pullback is both normal and healthy.  With the $1,730 level breached, next major support is $1,700 while the rising 200-day moving average (SMA) is currently sitting at $1,688 and that could be tested too. The downside, though, does appear to be very limited.

Silver fell $1.41 for the week to close at $32.07.  Copper lost 6 pennies to $3.62.  Crude Oil was off $1.81 to $90.05 while the U.S. Dollar Index fell slightly to 79.63.

John will provide his usual short-term and long-term Silver chart updates as part of Monday’s Morning Musings (new time – 8:30 am Pacific).

Global central bank easing continued last week with Turkey and Brazil both cutting interest rates by 25 basis points.

Gold Purchases By India Predicted To Climb

Purchases by India, the world’s number one importer of Gold, are predicted to climb for the first time in 18 months.  Indians have been cutting back on buying the metal because of a sharp devaluation of the local currency – Gold hit record highs of over 30,000 rupees per 10 grams earlier this year.  With domestic bullion prices declining again, jewellery and investment demand are expected to pick up. India is also heading into its festival season which culminates with Diwali on November 13 and is accompanied by huge spikes in Gold buying.

Bloomberg quotes Bachhraj Bamalwa, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, as saying that due to pent-up demand and light inventories, imports may jump to as much as 200 tonnes this quarter from an estimated 170 tonnes during the current quarter.

Gold consumption on the sub-continent dropped 42% during the first half of the year to just 340 tonnes from a record 969 tonnes for the whole of 2011 after three years of gains.

The “Big Picture” View Of Gold

As Frank Holmes so effectively illustrates at www.usfunds.com, Gold is being driven by both the Fear Trade and the Love Trade.  The transfer of wealth from west to east, and the accumulation of wealth particularly in China and India, is having a huge impact on Gold.

The fundamental case for Gold remains incredibly strong – currency instability and an overall lack of confidence in fiat currencies, governments and world leaders in general, an environment of historically low interest rates and negative real interest rates that won’t end anytime soon (inflation is greater than the nominal interest rate even in parts of the world where rates are increasing), money supply growth, massive government debt from the United States to Europe, central bank buying, flat mine supply, physical demand, investment demand, emerging market growth, geopolitical unrest and conflicts, and inflation concerns…the list goes on.  QE3 has arrived, and massive central bank intervention is now taking place to prevent a breakup of the euro zone and to kick-start the global economy.  It’s hard to imagine Gold not performing well in this environment.

October 19, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold appears headed for a second straight weekly decline as improving economic data from the U.S. to China has helped dampen speculation of more government stimulus…support for the yellow metal is holding so far, however, at the $1,730 level…as of 8:30 am Pacific, Gold is down $8 an ounce at $1,734…the next major support below $1,730 is $1,700…Silver is off 53 cents at $32.40…Copper is 6 pennies lower at $3.65…Crude Oil is down 33 cents at $91.77 while the U.S. Dollar Index has gained over one-quarter of a point to 79.61…

Will Silver See A Major Supply Squeeze And Massive Price Increase:

Interesting article this morning at www.mineweb.com that we encourage our readers to check out

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were mixed overnight with China’s Shanghai Composite Index cooling off 3 points to 2128…Japan’s Nikkei share average topped the 9,000 level to log its best weekly gain in nearly a year as expectations of easing from the Bank of Japan and robust risk sentiment on the back of an improved global outlook continued to soften the yen…European stocks are mildly lower…another EU summit has produced an agreement on a timetable to set up a single euro zone-wide banking supervisor run by the European Central Bank…however, leaders have so far failed to agree on the second key step in the bank rescue process: when the euro zone’s rescue fund will be able to start injecting cash directly into failing European banks, giving in to German resistance…it’s a weak day on the major North American exchanges with the Dow down over 100 points and the TSX off 60 points as of 8:30 am Pacific…stocks are extending their losses today, with all key S&P sectors in negative territory, pressured by several disappointing quarterly results and after a report this morning showed existing home sales dipped…

The Venture Exchange bucked the trend yesterday by gaining 8 points to 1312, its third straight positive day…and it’s bucking the trend again so far today with a 2-point gain as of 8:30 am Pacific

Commodity Markets Showing Strength

One way to gauge the strength of the commodity markets is to analyze the relationship between different currencies…below is a 6-month chart from John that shows the performance of the Canadian dollar vs. the U.S. dollar (blue line), and the Australian dollar vs. the Japanese Yen (black line)…the trend at the moment certainly remains bullish for commodities which helps to explain why important support levels on the Venture have held this week…

Galway Resources (GWY, TSX-V) Takeover

The Venture was given a lift this morning with the news that Galway Resources (GWY, TSX-V) has agreed to a takeover by AUX Acquisition 2 SARL and its wholly owned Ontario subsidiary…under the transaction, Galway shareholders will receive $2.05 in cash and 0.9 of a share in a new company to hold the Vetas Gold project and one share in a new company to hold the Victorio tungsten-molybdenum project…the new companies will be well capitalized with $18-million (U.S.) of cash and $12-million (U.S.) of cash, respectively…upon closing of the transaction, existing Galway shareholders will hold 90% of the Vetas SpinCo and 100% of the Victorio SpinCo…the $2.05-per-share cash consideration represents a premium of approximately 47% over the volume weighted average trading price of $1.39 per Galway Share on the Venture for the 20-trading days ending October 18…it’s anticipated that the arrangement will close on or before December 31, 2012…GWY, which had enjoyed a very good week coming into today, is currently up another 53 cents to $2.12…

Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V)

Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V) has just come out with some interesting Gold assay results, albeit from sampling at two prospective properties in its Big Strike package in the West Kootenays…hopefully this is an omen of things to come for the International and Gold Viking…Rainbow seems to have made some prospecting discoveries at the Whitewater and Referendum properties near the Nelson Gold Camp…two grab samples from a trench exposing numerous quartz veins in a mafic host rock at Whitewater returned 2.06 oz/t Au (64.1 g/t) and 0.86 oz/t Au (26.9 g/t)…the samples were taken from different veins 30 metres apart and have re-submitted for total metallics analysis which will also give a better idea of the nature of the Gold…this part of the Whitewater property, a former underground producer, has seen little exploration other than an access road and trench as reported by Rainbow this morning….meanwhile, an even better sampling result has come from the Referendum Property – 2.51 oz/t Au (78.1 g/t)…this is a sample containing quartz with banded tourmaline from a trench…it is also being reviewed using total metallics analysis…these results merely underscore the potential of RBW’s 13,000-hectare land package which includes half a dozen properties in addition to the recently drilled International, and the Gold Viking Property where a drill program is set to begin…we’ll have much more on Rainbow Monday morning in a special report…RBW is currently off half a penny at 20.5 cents…

Cascadero Copper (CCD, TSX-V)

We’ve been bullish on CCD over the past few months in particular after Lumina Copper (LCC, TSX-V) started reporting excellent drill results very close to CCD’s properties adjacent to 1.7 billion tonne Taca Taca Cu-Mo-Au deposit in northwest Argentina…yesterday, the two companies announced a joint-venture agreement on CCD’s Francisco 1 and Francisco 2 properties, and drilling begins at Francisco 1 as early as this weekend…CCD was one of the most active stocks on the Venture yesterday, climbing 3 pennies to 14 cents on total share volume (all exchanges) of 5 million…the deal is very much a game-changer for Cascadero and ultimately, we speculate, could result in a takeover of the company by Lumina given the strategic location of these properties…there hasn’t been much liquidity in CCD during its lifetime, and yesterday was by far the biggest volume day ever in the stock’s nearly decade-long existence…so some shareholders are just content selling into the volume and moving on…more volume will be required to push Cascadero through stiff resistance in the upper teens, but patient investors could easily get rewarded with this play in the coming months…stock is moving from weak hands into strong hands, and some recent private placements by the company indicate some serious money is placing a strong bet on this deal…below is an updated chart from John on CCD

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) Updated Chart

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) appears to have found strong support beginning in the low ’80’s, a little above the rising 200-day moving average…below is an updated 6-month weekly chart from John…

High Desert Gold Corporation (HDG, TSX-V) Updated Chart


Nevada Sunrise Gold Corporation (NEV, TSX-V)

Nevada Sunrise Gold Corp. (NEV, TSX-V) is a new situation that is worthy of our readers’ due diligence…below is a 2.5-year weekly chart from John that provides an overview of the current technical picture…

Note: John and Jon both hold share positions in RBW.

October 18, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is holding up well under some minor selling pressure today…as of 8:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $6 an ounce at $1,744 after falling as low as $1,737…Silver is off 19 cents at $33.01…Copper is flat at $3.72…Crude Oil has lost 43 cents a barrel to $91.69 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up less than one-tenth of a point at 79.16…

U.S. Economic Data

Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months…the increase represents a rebound from the previous week’s sharp drop…both swings, analysts say, were largely due to technical factors…the Labor Department reported that the four-week average of applications, a less volatile measure, fell slightly to 365,500, a level consistent with modest hiring…other data out this morning shows that factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region grew in October, although the pace of expansion was still modest…the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index rose to 5.7 from minus 1.9 the month before, snapping five months of contraction…that topped economists’ expectations for a gain to 1, according to a Reuters poll…meanwhile, the Conference Board reported that leading indicators rose 0.6% in September after falling 0.4% in August and rising 0.4% in July…the previous months were revised down slightly…the strength in September came from a big jump in applications for building permits, which the government reported yesterday had climbed to a four-year high that month…

China Economic Date Meets Expectations With Signs Of Improvement

China said its economy continued to slow in the third quarter just weeks before it embarks on a once-a-decade change in leadership…but in a positive sign for the world’s second-largest economy, data released last night showed signs that China is likely at or close to the bottom of its downturn…investment, retail sales and industrial production all accelerated at the end of the quarter, leading Premier Wen Jiabao  to declare that the worst was probably over…“It might take another couple of quarters for growth to significantly recover, but we believe the risk for a hard landing is getting increasingly smaller,” said Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch…growth in China’s gross domestic product fell to 7.4% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported, down from 7.6% in the second quarter and the weakest since the beginning of 2009…the seventh consecutive deceleration reflected a combination of weak demand from abroad, flagging investment at home, and insufficient spending by China’s households to pick up the slack…however, there are signs of recent improvement…industrial production accelerated in September, growing 9.2% from a year earlier, compared with 8.9 per cent growth in August…fixed-asset investment accelerated from 20.2% growth in the first eight months to 20.5% growth in the first nine months. Meanwhile, retail sales jumped from 13.2% growth in August to 14.2% in September…Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist for Asia ex. Japan at Credit Agricole, told CNBC, “Quarter-on-quarter growth accelerated to 2.2%, the most in a year and 9.1% in annualized terms – well above the 7.5% (official) growth target…“Clearly, concerns over continued slowdown can now be put to rest…it is very positive for all risk assets”…

Sentiment of Mining Executives “Vastly Improved”

Mineweb.com reports that a survey of 125 mining executives internationally reveals that the outlook for the mining industry “has vastly improved” in the last four months, according to Andrew Pollard, president of Vancouver’s Mining Recruitment Group Ltd…”2012 has been a year of tremendous volatility for the industry, felt by resources companies across all stages, from the junior explorers up to the large cap producers,” Mining Recruitment Group (MRG) observed…”Thankfully, this new report provides evidence that the worst may in fact already be behind us”…more than half of the respondents (55%) surveyed in the first week of October believe the mining sector will perform better in the second half of this year than it did in the first half…this is up significantly from the 22% of respondents surveyed in June who thought things would get better in the second half of 2012…”When asked about their short term (6-12 month) outlook on the overall strength of the mining industry, 47% of respondents hold a bullish view,” said Pollard…”This is up remarkably from our Q3 polling where only 8% of executives held a bullish outlook and 38% had stated they were bearish”…while the executives’ short term outlook has improved, 59% of those surveyed “were moderately to extremely concerned over a lack of investment capital moving into the industry over the next two years, down from 76% who held this view during our last polling in June”…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were strong overnight with China’s Shanghai Composite gaining 26 points to 2132 as some important economic data (see below) included encouraging signs…Europe is mostly slightly positive today while the Dow is essentially unchanged as of 8:30 am Pacific…the Venture Exchange, after climbing back above the 1300 level yesterday, is up 4 more points to 1308 as of 8:30 am Pacific

Updated Euro Chart

Further to the bearish U.S. dollar chart we posted this morning, John has an interesting euro chart that shows why the outlook for Gold remains very positive as the euro is clearly in a strong uptrend…yesterday, the euro confirmed a breakout and a continuation of its uptrend as you can see in the 6-month daily chart below (there is a close correlation between the euro and Gold)…


Cascadero Copper (CCD, TSX-V)

One of the volume leaders this morning on the Venture is Cascadero Copper (CCD, TSX-V), and what’s driving it is the company’s strategically situated properties (Francisco 1 and Francisco 2) in northwest Argentina that are now part of a joint venture deal with Lumina Copper (LCC, TSX-V) as announced this morning…we’ve mentioned these properties before as CCD’s exploration has shown they could be extensions to Lumina’s 1.7 billion tonne Taca Taca Cu-Mo-Au deposit…Francisco 1 and Francisco 2 are immediately adjacent to Taca Taca, and some of Lumina’s recent drilling (with good results) has almost come within spitting distance of the boundary…the bottom line here is that CCD is a potential takeover candidate by Lumina in order to enhance Lumina’s value as a takeover candidate…Lumina has already itself up on the block…Cascadero’s properties hold strategic value to Lumina, and not just perhaps because they could be extensions to Taca Taca…as we’ve seen in the Blackwater district with New Gold, a company’s land package adjoining a major deposit can hold considerable value for infrastructure purposes, tailings area, etc…drilling of Francisco 1 is expected to start within a couple of days…Lumina is the joint venture operator..

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)

Gold Bullion announced a western extension of the LONG Bars Zone this morning…GR-12-400 returned 0.45 g/t Au over 85.50 metres from 30.0 to 115.5 metres including 2.19 g/t Au over 4.50 metres near-surface…this hole was collared almost 200 metres west of the current Granada resource model…the total extent of confirmed mineralization now reaches an impressive 1,400 metres east-west by 950 metres north-south with much of the property still unexplored…

Corvus Gold (KOR, TSX) Updated Chart

Corvus Gold (KOR, TSX) has been holding up well despite announcing a $3.5 million financing at $1.07 on Tuesday…the company has enjoyed strong success in Nevada this year with its North Bullfrog Property, and John’s 2-year weekly chart shows clear support areas and an upsloping channel that has been in place all year…

Strategic Metals Ltd. (SMD, TSX-V)

Strategic Metals Ltd. (SMD, TSX-V) is sitting on almost enough cash to bail out Greece – we’ll see if they do anything with it…we’ve pointed this one out before, and the chart is looking even more interesting now…

Note: Terry holds a share position in GBB.

U.S. Dollar Index Chart Update

There’s really no end in sight to the slump in the U.S. Dollar Index which continues to be constrained by its EMA-20 and a downtrend line that has been in place for a few months.  This is bullish as far as the big picture is concerned for Gold and Silver and the Venture Exchange.  Below is John’s updated 6-month daily chart for the Dollar Index which is up slightly at 79.16 as of 6:40 am Pacific (please note that Morning Musings will be posted at 8:30 am Pacific today and tomorrow due to travel).

Also note:  Cascadero Copper (CCD, TSX-V) and Lumina Copper (LCC, TSX-V) have announced a joint-venture this morning on CCD’s Francisco 1 and 2 properties in northwest Argentina.  CCD is up 3 cents to 14 cents on nearly 900,000 shares as of 6:40 am Pacific.

U.S. Dollar Index Chart

October 17, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded in a narrow range so far today between $1,744 and $1,755…as of 6:05 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $3 an ounce at $1,745…Silver is off 3 cents at $32.93…Copper is flat at $3.69…Crude Oil is up 33 cents at $92.42 while the U.S. Dollar Index has slipped further to $79.01…

Early polls have given President Obama a slight edge in last night’s fiesty town hall debate between Obama and Mitt Romney…Obama bounced back from a lethargic performance in the first debate, and even got a little help from CNN moderator Candie Crowley, while Romney wasn’t quite as sharp as the first debate and missed some opportunities to land some verbal punches that would connected…the bottom line is that Obama has likely reasserted himself as a clear favorite in the November 6 election and that should help to keep the U.S. Dollar in check and provide support for Gold

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were strong overnight, following in the footsteps of the positive action in the U.S. markets yesterday…European shares are generally higher this morning while stock index futures in New York as of 6:05 am Pacific are pointing toward a slightly higher openon Wall Street as traders absorb another onslaught of key earnings reports…so far the third quarter hasn’t been quite as bad as some had feared on the earnings front…of the 22 S&P 500 companies that have reported since Oct. 9 through yesterday, only 3 or 13.6 per cent have missed earnings per share forecasts, according to Bespoke Investment group…in data just released in the last half hour, U.S. home construction jumped 15% in September to a four-year high of 872,000, while permits rose as well…

The Venture Exchange had an impressive 17-point move yesterday that took it back to the 1300 level…what we’re looking for is the formation of a bullish “W” on the RSI…as demonstrated yesterday, this market is underpinned by excellent support…

Euro Strength – Positive For Gold

The euro jumped to a one-month high versus the dollar and gained ground on other major rivals Wednesday after ratings firm Moody’s Investors Service held Spain’s rating a notch above junk grade in a long-awaited decision late the previous day…a cut by Moody’s would have made it harder for Spain to win back foreign investors…at issue for Madrid now are the hoops it must jump through to get the ECB to intervene in Spain’s bond market, bringing down the country’s borrowing costs…the ECB has indicated it will buy Spanish bonds only if Madrid first applies to the euro-zone governments’ bailout fund for a line of credit, called an “Enhanced Conditions Credit Line”…Senior Spanish officials signaled on Monday and Tuesday that Madrid is now more open to applying for an ECCL…

Fund Managers Growing More Bullish Toward Equities, Risk Assets

CNBC reports that while bonds have been the asset class of choice this year, equities are quickly gaining favor among global asset managers as central banks pump liquidity into the financial system and investors grow less fearful of the euro zone debt crisis…a monthly survey by Bank of America/Merrill Lynch showed 24% of fund managers are overweight equities – the highest in six months – rising from 15% in September…the survey of 200 managers, who oversee a combined $561 billion, was conducted over Oct. 5-11…European and emerging market equities have been the biggest beneficiaries of the shift in risk appetite, the survey showed…the percentage of participants bullish on emerging markets, for example, rose to 32% in October from 19% in the previous month – the biggest monthly rise in eight months…Roman Scott, chairman of investment management firm Calamander Group, said the investment case for equities is getting stronger given the liquidity boost provided by policymakers in the West…“This very blunt tool of monetary policy to effectively keep money very cheap, in fact almost free, is designed to force all of us into risk assets…(Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke wants everybody to buy equities and risk assets; the European Central Bank wants the same thing…I do think there’s a good case that the risk-on position is looking more attractive,” Scott told CNBC…

TSX Gold Index Chart

Another encouraging sign for Gold and the Venture Exchange is the strength in the TSX Gold Index at the moment…it has solid support at the 330 level and enjoyed its best session in over a month yesterday with an 8-point gain to 341…below is John’s updated 6-month Gold Index chart…

ATAC Resources (ATC, TSX-V) Releases More Yukon Results

ATAC Resources Ltd. (ATC, TSX-V) has released positive  results from 22 diamond drill holes completed at the Isis, Isis East and Osiris zones as well as the newly discovered Sunrise zone which is located 300 metres to the east of the Osiris zone…all zones are within the Nadaleen Trend at the eastern end of ATAC’s 100% owned 1,600 sq/km Rackla Gold Project in central Yukon…the Sunrise  Zone is the fifth significant Gold discovery made within the 3 by 4 km Osiris footprint as drill hole OS-12-173 intersected 14.76 metres near-surface grading 10.54 g/t Au …

Alliance Mining (ALM, TSX-V)

We first alerted our readers to Alliance Mining (ALM, TSX-V) a few months back, and the stock continues to hold up well and has seen a recent increase in volume including 174,000 shares changing hands on the Venture yesterday as ALM gained 2.5 cents to 9.5 cents…this newly-listed company has put together an impressive portfolio of past producing properties in Arizona’s richest historic Gold region, an area that hosted over 3,000 mines before the Second World War…ALM has just 29 million shares outstanding…

RJK Explorations (RJX.A, TSX-V)

RJK continues to drill in the Blackwater area and while volume in the stock remains relatively low, it has been forming a strong base and could suddenly explode higher if the company is able to connect on some holes…they do have an abundance of exceptional targets at their Blackwater Northeast and Blackwater West properties…below is an updated 2-year weekly chart from John that shows RJX.A is rebuilding after forming an important double bottom…


Troymet Exploration (TYE, TSX-V)

In addtion to RJK and Parlane Resources (PPP, TSX-V), Troymet Exploration (TYE, TSX-V) is very active in the Blackwater area and has just commenced a reverse circulation drill program at its Key Gold Project…at a nickel, it’s hard to imagine how one could go wrong on TYE…there’s always risk but we do like the risk-reward ratio on this one as the Blackwater camp is such an attractive exploration area and one that will likely produce more discoveries…what’s particularly interesting about TYE is that it recently broke out of a downtrend line that was in place for over a year…below is John’s updated 18-month weekly chart…

Note: Both John and Jon hold share positions in RJK Explorations while Jon also holds share positions in TYE and PPP.

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