Gold has traded in a range of $1,354 to $1,370 today…it went into decline following the announcement this morning of the resignation of Egyptian President Mubaruk who has handed over control to the military…while there is jubilation on the streets of Egypt today, the possibility of turmoil down the road certainly exists as a new political power structure tries to form after Mubaruk’s three-decade reign…a lot of eyes will be on what transpires with the Muslim Brotherhood as there is certainly danger with that particular group…things are definitely changing in the Middle East and we believe this has bullish implications for Gold and oil…as of 10:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $4 an ounce at $1,359…the 50-day moving average at $1,373 is an area of stiff resistance that Gold needs to overcome…our outlook for an eventual breakout is very favorable based in part on the action of the CDNX…Silver is off 18 cents at $30.03 while the U.S. Dollar Index has climbed one-third of a point to 78.55…the CDNX is 8 points higher at 2356…a lot of technology, energy and potash plays have been prominent heavy traders on the Venture recently, but this morning Eagle Hill (EAG, TSX-V) is the sixth most active stock on volume of over 8 million shares…Eagle Hill reported assay results this morning from Windfall Lake including 94.50 g/t Au over 6.25 metres….EAG is currently up 3 pennies at 31 cents…EAG’s long-term moving averages are turning positive, so the stock is certainly worth putting on one’s radar screen and doing some fresh due diligence on…John updated the chart for Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V) which has been showing impressive strength the last three weeks after briefly dipping below its 100-day moving average (SMA) January 20…AGE is currently off a penny at 50 cents…the chart is saying AGE could go much higher…we like this company’s projects a lot – not just their presence at Granada, of course, but their other key holdings including Pascalis-Colombiere (drilling started there in December)…strong bids persist in Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)…there has been significant accumulation of GBB in recent weeks…it appears from the trading that some “big players” are taking positions or adding to positions…in any event, something seems to be up…more results are expected very soon from Granada and they of course will determine GBB’s next move…the LONG Bars Zone has consistently delivered positive results over the last year and we see no reason why that’s going to change…GBB is currently down a penny at 74 cents…yesterday we again mentioned Visible Gold (VGD, TSX-V) which is strong today, up 4.5 cents to 44.5 cents on volume of over 500,000 shares…this is a company we like a lot and the chart shows that its retracement from an all-time high of 70 cents in early December has run its course…VGD is an emerging aggressive player along the Cadillac Trend with $9 million in cash and some promising properties, one of which (Silidor) is currently being drilled…technically and fundamentally, we see Visible Gold as one of the best opportunities right now among companies searching for Gold in northwestern Quebec…they have also partnered with Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V) on over 7,000 hectares of land west of Rouyn-Noranda, which is another reason we like Cadillac so much as well…given the exploration success that Vantex Resources (VAX, TSX-V) is enjoying at its Galloway Project, we believe Visible Gold will be targeting Cadillac’s properties immediately adjacent to Galloway for drilling as quickly as possible…it appears mineralization trends onto the joint ground held by Cadillac and Visible Gold…one of our readers posed a question this morning regarding Everton Resources (EVR, TSX-V) which is up a penny at 33 cents…for patient investors this remains an outstanding opportunity at current levels in our view…the rising 200-day moving average (SMA) at 27 cents is providing rock-solid technical support, so the downside risk appears to be very limited…of course we are extremely bullish regarding the geological potential of the Dominican Republic where Everton’s exploration efforts are focused…the company has other valuable projects which it has strategically farmed out…
February 11, 2011
Adventure Gold Updated Chart
John: Yesterday, Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V) opened at 47 cents, drifted down to 46 cents and then closed at its high of 51 cents. It gained 3 pennies (7.37%) on CDNX volume of 158,000 shares. As of 7:30 am Pacific, Adventure Gold is unchanged at 51 cents on volume of 68,500 shares. Something appears to be brewing here as this chart has turned quite bullish over the last three weeks.
Looking at the 4-month daily chart, we see that for the latter half of January AGE traded in a horizontal trend channel to consolidate and form a base for another move to the upside. On Jan. 28 it broke out to the upside of the channel and also the EMA(20). AGE has continued to trade above this close supporting moving average.
The close at 51 cents yesterday, and the current price this morning, is at a resistance level (blue horizontal line). The Fibonacci set (blue) shows the next immediate target to be at the 63 cent level. The previous weekly chart (February 5) shows the following target to be at 75 cents (these are not BMR price targets as we don’t give price targets but a theoretical Fibonacci level based on technical analysis). The volume is relatively low and must increase if AGE is to make a major move to the upside.
Looking at the indicators:
The RSI at 58% has formed a bullish”W” formation and has been above its EMA(20) since Jan. 28 (vertical orange line) – very bullish.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is at a very bullish level of 0.387 and above its EMA(20) which is pointing up. The buying power began on Jan. 18 when it broke above its moving average and has continued above it since then. This indicates consistent and increasing buying pressure.
The ADX trend indicator on this daily chart is low and the trend is weak with the +DI (green line) at 20 and above the -DI (red line) at 15. The ADX trend strength (black line) is flat at 17. The weekly chart on Feb. 5 shows the primary trend is very strong. This is a bullish orientation and the trend indicators have room to move up without becoming unstable.
Outlook: The chart and the indicators show that AGE is poised to attempt to break above resistance very soon with potential for a powerful new advance.
Note: The writer holds a position in Adventure Gold.
February 10, 2011
BMR Morning Market Musings…
Gold fell as low as $1,350 this morning but has rallied back to yesterday’s close of $1,364 as of 8:55 am Pacific…Silver dropped below $30 an ounce but has bounced back as well…it’s now up 3 cents to $30.23…the U.S. Dollar Index is up over a third of a point to 78.04…Mubarak appears ready to step down as leader of Egypt, so markets are focusing on developments there today…Gold’s next major area of resistance is between $1,370 and $1,380…new U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week to touch their lowest point in 2.5 years…this could be an encouraging sign that the U.S. labor market is on the road to recovery but that road is likely to be long and bumpy…the CDNX fell as low as 2333 this morning but is now recovering…the weakness yesterday and this morning should be of no concern as this market has very strong technical support between the 20-day moving average (SMA) at 2295 and the 10-day SMA at 2335…the 2300 level was major resistance in January and now it is major support…the CDNX may wish to test that support, and that’s perfectly fine…the Index is now down just 10 points at 2344…GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) has fallen two pennies to 42 cents on light volume…there is a very strong band of technical support on GQC between 40 and 42 cents as John identified in his chart last weekend…we believe this could be the “last chance” opportunity for GQC at or near these levels…we haven’t mentioned Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V) in a while…ABI dropped to a major support area at 16 cents (its rising 50-day SMA) this morning where it rallied from in late January…given the two outstanding assets this company has (the Abcourt-Barvue Silver-Zinc Property and the Elder-Tagami Gold Project), the company in our view will either unlock the value of these properties itself or it could become a takeover target…the record high volume in the stock since December suggests there is considerable interest in this company’s assets…Abcourt is currently unchanged at 17 cents, giving it a market capitalization of only $19 million…Troymet Exploration (TYE, TSX-V), which we have been following occasionally over the last few months, has started a drill program at its Key Project which is next to Richfield’s (RVC, TSX-V) Blackwater deposit in central British Columbia…it’ll be interesting to see what kind of results Troymet comes up with…they could really ignite a flurry of activity in the area if they hit something…TYE is ahead 1.5 cents to 26 cents…Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) is looking for a bottom and perhaps SFF found it yesterday at 37.5 cents (the 100-day SMA)…the stock is currently unchanged at 40.5 cents…it seems Seafield has mishandled the news flow (there hasn’t been any) after the momentum that was generated in December from the results at Miraflores and the financing, but we continue to hold complete confidence in the potential of Quinchia…Seafield has an excellent opportunity to outline a series of deposits that total several million ounces or more…as BMR readers know, we are very bullish on the prospects for Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V) and we suggest investors read an interesting letter to shareholders Cadillac has recently posted on its web site…in performing our due diligence on Cadillac, we also became quite familiar with Visible Gold (VGD, TSX-V) which CQX partnered with in December for exploration work on Cadillac’s substantial property package in the area around Rouyn-Noranda (west of Granada)…we suggest readers put VGD on their radar screens as the company is sitting on a large pile of cash (approximately $9 million) and has commenced a $6.5 million exploration program with a total of at least 40,000 metres of drilling for this year…the VGD group is hungry and aggressive and should generate some more excitement along the Cadillac Trend…the stock is rebounding from a recent low of 34 cents…it’s unchanged this morning at 39.5 cents…Sidon International (SD, TSX-V) is up half a penny at 13 cents…the stock is trading between its 100 and 200-day moving averages as it was through part of October and most of November prior to a breakout…patterns tend to repeat…this stock has been very volatile but right now it’s in a zone of strong technical support…we’re still waiting for confirmation of an interview time with President and CEO Kamal Alawas…
Seafield Resources Updated Chart
John: The extent of the weakness in Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) has surprised many, so this morning we take a look at the SFF chart to see if a bottom could be near at hand. As of 7:00 am Pacific, Seafield is down a penny-and-a-half to 39 cents. It has fallen in half from its all-time high of 77 cents in early December after initial drill results were released from its Miraflores Property in Colombia. Nine more holes from Miraflores are pending in addition to initial results from the nearby Dos Quebradas Property which we believe is an even better target.
Yesterday, Seafield opened at 41 cents, its high, dropped to a low of 37.5 cents (its 100-day SMA) before recovering to close unchanged at 41 cents on volume of 1.4 million shares.
Looking at the 5-month daily chart, we see that on December 3 SFF gapped up at the open from the previous close of 23 cents to 35 cents and continued to climb during the day to a high of 77 cents. A gap up in an uptrend is known as a “Rising Window”. From that day the stock has gradually retraced to yesterday’s low of 37.5 cents. The Fibonacci set (blue) shows yesterday’s close is exactly at the 38.2% level which has provided support.
We see that early in January a “Morning Doji Star” was formed – this is a 3-candle bullish reversal pattern and for 3 sessions the stock price climbed. Then the share price continued its retracement until yesterday when we see the candle is a Doji. The preceeding candle was red so if today’s candle is long and white, that negates most of the red candle which would give us another bullish “Morning Doji Star” pattern. This is noted on the chart with a “?”. The gap or space of the “Rising Window” is a band of support so with the additional support of the Fibonacci 38.2% level the price may be at or close to a reversal point.
After a reversal the first resistance will be the EMA(10) moving average (blue line) at 45 cents which is pointing down. Other levels of resistance to overcome are shown at 48 cents and 60 cents (blue horizontal lines).
Looking at the indicators:
I have used a RSI(5) instead of the usual 14 period because this is more sensitive to oversold conditons and reversals. Yesterday it was at 23%, having bounced up from Tuesday’s 20% level. The RSI is presently oversold and pointing up – bullish.
The Slow Stochastics is forming a very bullish looking “W” formation below the 20% level in the oversold region.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows increased selling pressure in the last few days. This indicator should be monitored daily to detect when this selling pressure starts to subside.
Outlook: Seafield appears to be looking for a bottom around current levels, so a bullish reversal could occur in the very near future.
Note: The writer holds a position in Seafield.
February 9, 2011
BMR Morning Market Musings…
Gold got as high as $1,368 this morning but has since backed off…as of 9:00 am Pacific, Gold is down $2 an ounce at $1,362 after a strong move yesterday that took it to a three-week high…Silver is off 19 cents at $30.18…the U.S. Dollar Index is down one-fifth of a point at 77.78…the CDNX got as high as 2387 this morning before reversing…the Index has declined 24 points to 2357…we’ve seen many of these mini-pullbacks since the big run started last summer…this is completely normal and healthy from a technical standpoint, and sometimes even reverses sharply intra-day or a day later…it’s also the best time to be accumulating positions…in testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives’ Budget Committee this morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated, “Inflation is expected to persist below the levels that Federal Reserve policymakers have judged to be consistent” with their mandate…Bernanke also expressed concerns about lingering U.S. unemployment and high government deficit and debt levels…it’s likely safe to conclude the Fed is going to maintain a very accommodating monetary policy until at least sometime in 2012 which bodes well for the markets and Gold…the Fed will also want to see a continued weak greenback…everyone has been jumping on the potash and technology plays lately which is all the more reason to be looking at some of the beaten-down Gold stocks before the masses start piling back into them…a good example is Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) which hit its 100-day moving average (SMA) at 37.5 cents this morning…the stock seems to be trading on technicals rather than fundamentals right now which presents opportunity for those who understand the value and potential of the company’s Quinchia Project in Colombia…based on oversold RSI and Stochastics indicators, as well as support levels, Seafield has to be very close to bottoming out after climbing as high as 77 cents in December…watching the trading closely in Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) in recent weeks, there has definitely been consistent accumulation with loose stock being soaked up in an orderly fashion…this suggests continued strong confidence that Granada is going to deliver more very positive results in the near future…the delay in assays likely has to do with re-checking, verification and interpretation of a large amount of data that GENIVAR is probably dealing with…GBB is currently down 2 pennies at 73 cents…GoldQuest has been an out-performer among the Golds so far this year and we expect that trend will continue given the progress it’s making in the Dominican Republic and Spain…corporately, the company is now in better shape than ever with Bill Fisher as Chairman and Julio Espaillat as the new President and CEO…it’s not hard to figure out what’s happening here…these two plan on duplicating what they did at GlobeStar which put into production the DR’s only currently operating mine…of course GlobeStar got taken over late last year for nearly $200 million…GoldQuest is well advanced in the DR, having explored there for over a decade, and the possibility of Fisher and Espaillat building GoldQuest into another GlobeStar (or even a better version of GlobeStar) is very real…in fact we would say probable…GoldQuest’s current market cap is $47 million, so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the potential here…GoldQuest is down half a penny at 46 cents…Great Panther Silver (GPR, TSX), which we were mentioning just recently when it was below $2.00, climbed as high as $2.88 this morning…GPR is currently at $2.75, down 3 pennies…it has traded up for 8 consecutive days and is probably due for a little breather…it remains one of our favorite silver plays with a significantly expanding production profile in Mexico…
February 8, 2011
BMR Morning Market Musings…
Gold has shrugged off another interest rate hike in China and is $13 higher as of 8:30 am Pacific…the yellow metal is currently at $1,365, just slightly above its 100-day moving average (SMA)…Gold bulls have wrestled momentum away from the bears…inflation is clearly a concern in China and other emerging markets…what’s also important is that China still has negative interest rates (the interest rate minus the inflation rate) which continues to make Gold very attractive to hold…using the one-year deposit rate, even with today’s hike, China still has a negative rate of 1.6%…today also marks the end of China’s New Year holiday…physical buyers are starting to come back into the Gold market…Silver is ahead 61 cents to $30.05…the U.S. Dollar Index, meanwhile, is down one-third of a point to 77.68…the CDNX is off 4 points at 2371…rare earths, potash and sexy technology plays like INT have drawn a lot of investor interest recently…at BMR our niche is primarily the junior Golds but of course we also track the overall health of the CDNX which helps traders and investors make decisions on a wider range of opportunities…the CDNX continues to look extremely bullish which is positive not only for the Gold plays but other sectors as well…for possible opportunities in the potash space, we suggest investors check out Clive Maund’s web site (www.clivemaund.com)…he helped make his readers a lot of money in Allana Potash (AAA, TSX-V) and has just recommended Encanto Potash Corp. (EPO, TSX-V) which is a little weaker this morning at 57 cents…keep in mind Clive is a technical analyst…investors should, as always, perform their fundamental and other due diligence…GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX) has named Julio Espaillat its new President and CEO this morning which is yet another reason why we see a major breakthrough coming for this company in the Dominican Republic…Espaillat is intimately familiar with the DR…for the past 11 years he was President and General Manager of GlobeStar’s DR subsidiary…he was co-responsible for building the only currently operating mine (Cerro de Maimon) in the DR which is about 100 kilometres from GoldQuest’s Las Animas Project…there are potential production synergies between the two as we discussed with Chairman Bill Fisher last Thursday…initial drill results from La Escandalosa are expected in the near future along with a 43-101 resource estimate for GoldQuest’s Toral zinc-lead-silver deposit in Spain…GQC is currently down half a penny at 47 cents after falling as low as 44.5 cents…any weakness should be pounced on as an opportunity with GoldQuest given the powerful fundamentals and technicals that are underpinning and driving it…GoldQuest is building major momentum in the DR and the appointment of Espaillat clearly demonstrates the direction the company is headed…they are aiming for a resource of at least a million ounces at Escandalosa with the goal of putting this deposit into production at the rate of 100,000 ounces a year…the current 42-hole program should significantly increase and upgrade resources…Richfield Ventures (RVC, TSX-V) has released more drill results this morning…a one kilometre mineralized zone from east to west has now been defined with all assays in from 2010 drilling…the latest seven holes include 206 metres grading 1.56 g/t Au in BW-114 and 39 metres of 2.74 g/t Au in BW-112 which was collared 100 metres east of known mineralization…drilling has resumed at Blackwater…the company will be drilling at least 30,000 more metres this year and is also working on a Preliminary Economic Assessment which should be completed by the fall…Richfield traded as high as $5.49 this morning but has since backed off to $5.15 for a loss of 9 pennies for the day…Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V) has gained three cents to 30.5 cents…Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) released more encouraging drill results from Wasamac this morning, where Cadillac holds claims, and also announced that a new resource estimate for Wasamac will come out by the end of next week…what’s also interesting is that three rigs continue to drill at Wasamac…Cadillac’s AGM is next week and Wasamac will no doubt be a topic of conversation…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is unchanged at 75 cents after trading as high as 77 cents on an increase in volume this morning…news appears to be imminent from Granada and the trading action suggests it’s going to be good…
February 7, 2011
BMR Morning Market Musings…
Gold has traded in a range of $1,344 to $1,354 so far today…as of 8:35 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $2 an ounce at $1,351…Silver is 24 cents higher at $29.38 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up slightly at 78.14…the next big test for Gold will be to get through its 100-day moving average (SMA) at $1,362…the CDNX is quickly approaching the 2400 level…the Index is up another 12 points this morning to 2382…GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) hit a new 52-week high of 48.5 cents this morning…it’s currently up 2 pennies at 47 cents…our interview with GQC Chairman Bill Fisher has given us even more confidence that this company is on track for major exploration success in the Dominican Republic where Fisher’s goal is to outline at least a million ounces at La Escandalosa and put that near-surface deposit into production…a 43-101, based on just 25 holes, gave GoldQuest an inferred resource of 400,000 ounces prior to the start of the current 42-hole program…the 400,000 ounces is over a central zone section 350 metres long while mineralization has been traced over a distance of approximately two kilometres north to south…given that this is a flat-lying near-surface ore body that would have very low stripping ratios, the potential economics “are really quite compelling”, Fisher told us…GoldQuest has much more going for it in the DR as well as a 43-101 due for release at any time now on the Toral zinc-lead-silver deposit in Spain (5.4 million historical non-compliant tonnes grading 9% zinc, 6% lead and 45 g/t Ag)…we got the distinct impression from Fisher that investors can expect solid news flow from GoldQuest over the coming weeks and months…GoldQuest has a truly exciting package and a clear game plan…a decade of hard work in the DR is starting to pay off…Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V) has come to life…CQX jumped as high as 33 cents this morning and is currently at 29 cents, up 4 pennies…the recent retracement seems to have run its course…with its strong presence in strategic areas along the Cadillac Trend, primarily west of Rouyn-Noranda, and its recent foray into the Great Basin where it has tied up an entire former mining camp near the Utah/Nevada border, the outlook for CQX is very positive especially considering its attractive share structure and current market cap of only $7.25 million…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is off a penny on low volume at 75 cents…we have to assume a major exploration update from Gold Bullion is near at hand…news should also be on its way soon from Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) which is off 1.5 cents this morning at 45 cents…technically, Seafield is still in very good shape and the recent weakness can simply be attributed to a lack of news…results from nine more drill holes are pending from Miraflores and initial results from Dos Quebradas are expected as well…Seafield’s Quinchia land package holds serious blue sky potential – geologically, it has all the right ingredients for a multi-million ounce system – so now is not the time to be getting cold feet simply because some impatient investors have knocked the price down a few pennies…after recovering to a high of 22.5 cents last week, Currie Rose Resources has pulled back to test support…this is normal technical action…it’s pretty clear in our view that CUI put in an important bottom recently at 15 cents, where it’s supported by a rising 200-day moving average…CUI is currently down 2 pennies at 17 cents…Sidon International (SD, TSX-V) is holding steady at 13 cents where it has strong technical support…President and CEO Kamal Alawas has agreed to an interview with us in the near future…it’s possible he could be waiting for news…we like how Adventure Gold’s (AGE, TSX-V) chart is looking (see John’s update yesterday)…AGE is currently off 3 pennies at 45 cents…we’re looking forward to drilling news from AGE’s Pascalis-Colombiere Gold Property in the eastern portion of the Val d’Or mining camp…a drill program started in mid-December…excellent potential for extensions to the past producing L.C. Beliveau Mine…
Independent Research and Analysis of Emerging Junior Resource Companies: Speculative, Undervalued, Home Run Opportunities in Today’s Markets
Welcome to our site, or at least the initial version of it! BMR has been online for over a year now and strictly through word-of-mouth we have built a large and loyal following. It helps when your model portfolio is up over 200%!
We’re continuing with our plans to ultimately build a very unique investment and money-management resource site that goes considerably beyond what we have now. An important component of this site will always be original research on small and undiscovered junior resource companies, mostly in the Gold exploration space, that offer very real and significant upside potential. We are extremely selective in the companies we feature and put forward to investors – we prefer quality over quantity.
We use a combination of fundamental and technical factors in determining the value and potential of a stock. In terms of fundamentals we look for a company with a superb project supported by strong management. Management must possess integrity, solid ethics and a determination to succeed and build shareholder value.
At BullMarketRun (BMR) we approach the handling of money from a biblical perspective and this is an important topic we will be sharing with our readers (and listeners) as the site continues to develop. The Bible teaches so much about money and how to handle it and invest it – there are literally thousands of verses on how we should handle the money and possessions that God entrusts us with. By examining the life of Jesus and reading the Word of God, we can all become fully equipped to be successful investors and handle money wisely in order to make it work for us. If it’s the other way around – if you’re a slave to money by being in debt for instance, or if you don’t respect the value of money and spend it foolishly – you’re in trouble and you’ll never be blessed financially. We have a God who thinks big – He created the universe – and He wants us to think big in every area of our lives. When we handle money from a Biblical perpective (His money that we have been given stewardship of) He will bless our financial decisions and an increase of tenfold or a hundredfold is always possible. This all begins, of course, with a personal relationship with Jesus Christ by accepting Him as your Lord and Savior and putting Him at the throne of your life. It is the most important decision you’ll ever make.
God Bless,
Terry Dyer
Owner/Publisher, www.BullMarketRun.com